The humidity hanging over the region this morning tells part of the story — at 69°F in Geneva with dewpoints already climbing, today isn’t just warm, it’s the kind of July day that builds toward something. And it will. The NWS Buffalo office has been watching a wave of energy tracking across the Great Lakes since before dawn, and conditions are favoring isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through this evening.
Here’s how the day unfolds: the morning starts partly cloudy and warm, with southerly winds pushing humidity higher as a warm front advances northeast across western New York. Temperatures climb into the upper 70s to low 80s by early afternoon — near 83° in Ithaca and Watkins Glen, around 80° in Geneva and Auburn. That moisture-rich air, combined with upper-level energy rotating through the region, sets the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop and push east during the afternoon and evening hours. A 41% precipitation chance is in the forecast for today; the timing carries some uncertainty, but the window of highest risk runs through this evening.
Overnight, the front clears through and temperatures settle near 68°. Wednesday arrives noticeably cooler and drier — highs only reaching 69° in Geneva, with just a slight chance of lingering showers or a rumble early. By Thursday, the skies clear out and temperatures moderate back to 75°, climbing to near 80° Friday and 84° over the weekend, though another round of light drizzle and showers returns by Sunday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.