Clear skies and temps in the upper 50s greet me this morning — about as pleasant a July Sunday as you’ll find in the Finger Lakes, with humidity already backing off from yesterday’s muggy levels. Enjoy it while it lasts, because the forecast through next week tells a very different story.
Today is the easy day. Skies stay clear through the morning and afternoon, with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s region-wide — Geneva and Canandaigua near 83°, Auburn near 85°, and Ithaca, Watkins Glen, and Elmira pushing closer to 86–87°. Winds stay nearly calm, mostly under 5 mph. It will feel warm but not uncomfortable, with humidity staying manageable. A near-perfect summer afternoon is on tap. Sunset comes around 8:46 PM, and the overnight stays clear and mild, with lows settling back to the upper 50s.
Monday brings the first turn of the screws — highs reaching the upper 80s with some morning drizzle possible — but Tuesday is the day to watch. The NWS Buffalo office is using the phrase “potentially dangerous heat” for Tuesday, and confidence in that call is growing. A large high-pressure dome tracking east from the Four Corners region will place its eastern ridge squarely over the Great Lakes by Tuesday, pushing 850mb temperatures into the 99th percentile for mid-July. Highs near 95° are likely, and rising humidity will push heat index values into the mid-to-upper 90s, possibly higher at inland locations like Ithaca and Elmira. Wednesday cools modestly to the mid 80s, and by Thursday and Friday the pattern settles into the low 80s with a slight drizzle chance returning by the weekend.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.