The numbers building on the models for next week are worth paying attention to — Buffalo’s forecast office is now using the phrase “potentially dangerous heat” for Tuesday, and confidence in that call is rising this morning. But let’s start with today, which is actually quite pleasant.
The region wakes up to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s, with humidity running high — Corning and Bath are both sitting near 97–98% this morning, though that moisture doesn’t translate into rain. Expect clouds to thin through the morning hours, with sunshine taking over by midday. Highs today reach the low 80s across most of the region, with Geneva topping out near 81° and Ithaca pushing to 84°. Light winds keep things comfortable. Tonight stays partly cloudy and mild, with lows settling back to 64° before a beautiful Sunday follows — mainly clear, highs near 83°, and just a 1% chance of rain.
Then the pattern shifts. A dominant dome of high pressure currently anchored over the Four Corners region pushes east through the weekend, reaching the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Temperatures climb to 88° Monday and could push into the low-to-mid 90s Tuesday — the NWS Buffalo office notes 850mb temperatures in the 21–24°C range, which supports highs in that potentially dangerous territory. Humidity also rises Tuesday, making it the most likely day for significant heat stress. Wednesday and Thursday back off slightly into the upper 80s before temperatures moderate toward 81° by next Friday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.