My radar screen has been a mess since before dawn, and it’s not clearing up anytime soon — a broad surface low centered near southern Ontario is barely moving, and the Finger Lakes sit squarely in the bullseye of what the National Weather Service is flagging as a localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat through tonight.
At 10:30 this morning, moderate rain is falling across most of the region. Geneva, Auburn, Canandaigua, and Watkins Glen are all reporting steady rain in the low 70s, with humidity values between 88 and 92 percent making conditions feel oppressive despite the mild temperatures. Ithaca is picking up light drizzle. The cold front — extending from southern Ontario down through northwestern Pennsylvania — will slowly drift east this afternoon, but NWS Buffalo is clear that conditions are favorable for training showers and thunderstorms to keep producing heavy rainfall through the evening hours. Atmospheric moisture is exceptionally high right now, and any cell that sets up could dump rain quickly in a small area.
Today’s highs will be suppressed by the cloud cover and rain, topping out near 74° across most of the region, with Ithaca and Watkins Glen reaching close to 76°. Don’t expect a break tonight — another round of showers and possible thunderstorms is likely as the front completes its passage, with overnight lows in the upper 60s.
Wednesday brings more of the same: moderate rain and drizzle likely, with highs only reaching 71° in Geneva as the system lingers. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Thursday at 2:00 PM for northern Cayuga County and surrounding lake-shore areas — rough surf and dangerous swimming conditions on Lake Ontario and Cayuga Lake’s northern end. Conditions finally improve heading into the back half of the week, with Thursday seeing lingering shower chances before drier air settles in Friday. The weekend looks substantially better — highs climb back to 80° Friday and into the low-to-mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday before another slight chance of drizzle arrives early next week.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.