I’m watching a line of showers and thunderstorms that will develop and push through the region this afternoon and evening — and a few of those storms could turn strong. This is the main weather story today, and it’s worth planning around before you head out.
The morning starts warm and muggy under a thick overcast, with temperatures already in the mid-60s regionwide. Humidity is running high — Geneva sits at 74% — and that moisture will fuel storm development later. A brief, light shower is possible during the morning hours as a weak disturbance crosses the eastern Great Lakes, but most areas should stay dry through the late morning.
The real action builds this afternoon. A mid-level trough pushing in from the west, combined with a weakening cold front approaching from the northwest, will touch off showers and thunderstorms roughly between 2 PM and 8 PM. NWS Buffalo is highlighting an isolated severe weather risk — localized heavy downpours are the primary concern, with an outside chance of damaging winds. The Ithaca and Watkins Glen areas, away from stabilizing lake influence, face the highest storm potential. Highs will reach the mid-to-upper 80s before storms cool things down — 85° in Geneva, 88° near Ithaca and Watkins Glen.
Storms taper by late evening, and overnight lows settle near 65°.
Sunday looks noticeably quieter and somewhat cooler — highs drop to around 71° with a dry, overcast sky. The rest of next week warms back up into the low-to-mid 80s, though Tuesday and Wednesday look mainly dry before moisture returns by next Wednesday evening into Thursday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.