I’m watching this afternoon closely — the morning came in warmer and drier than some models suggested, which means the atmosphere has more time to destabilize before the cold front arrives tonight. That’s not necessarily good news for storm intensity.
Right now at noon, temperatures are running well ahead of where many of us started the day, with Geneva at 77°, Ithaca already touching 79°, and Watkins Glen hitting 80°. The southwest flow is pumping in Gulf moisture, and humidity levels are noticeable — dewpoints are climbing into the mid 60s across much of the region.
The NWS Buffalo office is watching a pre-frontal trough and lake breeze boundaries — not the front itself — as the likely trigger for this afternoon’s shower and storm activity. Expect the action to build between roughly 3 PM and 9 PM, with the heaviest rainfall and an isolated severe weather risk in that window. Localized downpours are the primary concern. Stay weather-aware heading into the evening, especially if you’re outdoors around Auburn, Canandaigua, or Ithaca, where instability should be highest away from lake shadow zones.
Highs top out near 83° in Geneva and 86° near Ithaca and Watkins Glen before temperatures drop back through the evening as the front clears through.
Sunday looks markedly different — overcast but dry, with highs near 73° in Geneva. A comfortable, quieter stretch follows through early next week before the next rain chance arrives around Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.