The forecast that’s holding my attention this morning is Watkins Glen’s projected high of 100° — the first triple-digit reading in the valley this summer, and it arrives today as the heart of this heat wave shows no sign of loosening its grip. NWS Buffalo and NWS Binghamton have both issued Extreme Heat Warnings that blanket the entire Finger Lakes region, in effect until Friday at 8:00 PM.
This morning starts sticky and warm, with temperatures already in the low-to-mid 70s and humidity values above 90% at nearly every reporting station. There’s no relief in the early hours — dewpoints in the low 70s are making the air feel thick from the first step outside. Skies are mainly clear, which means full sun will drive heat building quickly through the morning.
By afternoon, highs reach the mid-to-upper 90s across the region — Geneva topping near 95°, Auburn and Canandaigua near 96°, and Ithaca, Corning, and Elmira flirting with 98° to 100°. Heat index values will likely peak between 104° and 108° in the warning zones, putting this squarely in dangerous territory. The NWS points to a dominant upper-level ridge parked over the Ohio Valley as the driver — 850-millibar temperatures running well above seasonal norms through Thursday. There is a slight thunderstorm chance today and again Thursday, but storms offer little cooling relief given the oppressive overnight lows holding near 74° to 77°.
Thursday is actually the worst of it before conditions begin a slow retreat Friday, with highs still near 90°. Independence Day Saturday looks significantly more comfortable at 85°, though a 59% precipitation chance means fireworks viewing could be complicated by showers or drizzle. Sunday through early next week stays in the mid-80s with lingering drizzle chances before a drier, partly cloudy pattern returns Tuesday, July 7.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.