The Weather Center has a gentle south wind and partly cloudy skies greeting the Finger Lakes at 59° this morning — but that quiet won’t last long. Today is shaping up as a legitimate two-act weather day, and both acts involve rain.
The first act is already in motion. A weak disturbance with a warm frontal segment is pushing across the region from west to east this morning, bringing scattered showers that will increase in coverage through mid-morning. Expect that first round to work through Auburn and Geneva by roughly 8 to 10 AM, with Ithaca and the southern communities picking it up shortly after.
There’s a brief window around midday when cloud cover may thin enough to allow some instability to build. That sets the stage for the second and more significant round: a cold frontal passage brings showers with embedded thunderstorms into the region during the afternoon and evening, likely between 2 and 8 PM. The Buffalo NWS office flags an isolated strong-to-severe storm as possible, with damaging winds and hail the primary concerns. The greatest threat sits to the west of us, but a stray strong cell can’t be ruled out across the southern Finger Lakes. Highs reach the low-to-mid 70s — near 71° in Geneva and Canandaigua, closer to 75° in Ithaca and Watkins Glen — before temperatures back off as the front clears through.
Overnight skies gradually improve, with lows settling near 59°.
Looking ahead: the IMSA WeatherTech weekend at Watkins Glen International gets underway Friday, and the forecast is encouraging. Friday looks mostly dry with a high near 77° and only a slight drizzle chance early. Saturday’s support races and qualifying see an overcast sky but just a 17 percent precipitation chance and a high of 76°. Race day Sunday — the Sahlen’s Six Hours of The Glen — is the best card of the stretch: mainly clear, a high near 80°, and a mere 4 percent precip chance. After the race, a heat build takes over: Monday climbs to 86°, and by Tuesday the region is pushing into the low 90s with a chance of thunderstorms returning as heat and humidity peak.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.