Rounds of showers are already moving through the region this midday — the drizzle showing up at Canandaigua, Watkins Glen, Corning, and Elmira right now is part of that first wave, and there’s more behind it. Temperatures are holding in the low 70s regionwide with overcast skies and a light south wind.
The bigger concern arrives this afternoon and evening. NWS Buffalo forecasters are tracking a cold frontal passage that will trigger a secondary round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Weak to moderate instability is expected to build if there’s any afternoon cloud break, and with bulk wind shear running 30 to 40 knots, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible — damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards. The highest risk stays across western New York, though an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out in the western Southern Tier.
Showers taper after the front pushes through late tonight. Friday starts the IMSA WeatherTech weekend at The Glen with lingering drizzle possible but odds dropping to 11 percent — should be manageable for teams and fans heading to practice and qualifying. Race day Sunday, the Sahlen’s Six Hours of the Glen, currently looks dry and clear with a high near 80°.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.