The solstice weekend is off to a quietly beautiful start — my thermometer here in Geneva reads 57°F under mainly clear skies, and that’s the story across nearly the entire Finger Lakes at 6:30 this morning. Enjoy it while it lasts, because the afternoon looks more unsettled.
A Beach Hazards Statement from NWS Buffalo is currently in effect for parts of the northern lakeshores through 8 AM this morning — swimmers and boaters on Lake Ontario’s southern shores should check conditions before heading out.
For the rest of today, the combination of daytime heating and a passing shortwave disturbance sets the stage for scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, most likely between about noon and midnight. The best chances will be focused in areas closer to Lake Ontario — Auburn and Canandaigua are most likely to catch activity this afternoon and evening. Highs reach the low-to-mid 70s regionwide, with Ithaca and Watkins Glen touching 76°. Winds stay light and westerly.
Overnight into Sunday, showers may linger, then a second disturbance keeps a few spotty showers in play through Sunday. The more significant system arrives Sunday night into Monday, when a low tracking through the Ohio Valley pushes organized showers across the region.
Looking further ahead: Tuesday and Wednesday remain unsettled, with the best chance of meaningful rainfall expected Monday through Wednesday. By Thursday-Friday, conditions improve, with mainly clear skies and highs climbing toward the mid-to-upper 70s. Stream flows across the region are running at seasonal norms, so this weekend’s rainfall, while welcome, is unlikely to cause any drainage concerns.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.