The rain is already arriving ahead of schedule — Geneva is sitting at 81° under light showers at midday, and the afternoon still has more in store. NWS Buffalo flagged the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier today, driven by a combination of afternoon heating, lake breeze convergence zones, and a series of small disturbances rotating through. Storm coverage is expected to increase through the midday and early afternoon hours.
Highs will top out in the low-to-upper 80s regionwide before any storms move through — Elmira is already touching 88° under clearing skies, while Canandaigua and Auburn are running a few degrees cooler with lingering drizzle. The key question for Independence Day fireworks tonight is timing: if the more active storm window moves through between 2 and 6 PM, skies could improve enough by 8 PM for a reasonable show. But any delay in storm activity pushes that risk into the fireworks window around 9 PM. Keep an eye on updates through the afternoon.
Sunday brings fog and continued unsettled weather into early next week, with the best rain chances arriving Monday through Tuesday as moisture deepens across the region.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.