My radar this morning shows a line of scattered showers already working east across the region — and with Independence Day fireworks on the line tonight, the timing of today’s storm activity matters a great deal. Geneva is waking up to light drizzle at 72°, and that unsettled pattern is going to persist well into the afternoon before the key question of the day gets answered: will the evening clear enough for a show?
Through mid-morning, widely scattered showers will continue crossing the region west to east, with weak forcing keeping coverage limited. The bigger concern arrives at midday. NWS Buffalo flags isolated severe thunderstorms as possible across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as daurnal heating kicks in and a series of small-scale disturbances ride along a weak frontal boundary overhead. Watkins Glen and the southern valleys — where highs could reach the mid-80s — will face the highest storm potential this afternoon, roughly between noon and 6 PM.
By this evening, the question becomes how quickly the activity moves through. Fireworks venues from Canandaigua to Geneva and Ithaca should watch the radar closely heading into the 8–9 PM window. Sunset isn’t until 8:49 PM tonight, so there’s some time for conditions to improve, but with a 61% precipitation probability through the day there are no guarantees. Overnight lows settle near 70°.
Looking ahead: the unsettled pattern holds Sunday and Monday, with occasional showers especially across the southern Finger Lakes. A drying trend arrives by Wednesday, with highs climbing back toward 84° by Thursday. Another round of drizzle is possible late in the week.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.