The number that launched this morning’s forecast is “98 to 102” — that’s the peak heat index range NWS Binghamton is projecting for the Finger Lakes today, even as they downgraded the Extreme Heat Warning to a Heat Advisory overnight for parts of the region. That downgrade is worth understanding: it doesn’t mean the heat is letting up, only that the worst of the ridge has shifted slightly south. It’s still dangerous outside.
As of 6 AM, temperatures are already sitting in the low-to-mid 70s regionwide — Geneva at 74°, Canandaigua at a muggy 76° — with humidity values between 80 and 87 percent. There’s essentially no overnight recovery happening. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across Schuyler, Steuben, Chemung, Tompkins, and Seneca counties until 8:00 PM tonight, while a Heat Advisory covers Ontario, Cayuga, and Wayne counties through the same window. If you’re in Ithaca or Watkins Glen, where projected highs reach 94° and 95° respectively, plan any outdoor activity for early morning and get indoors well before noon.
The heat peaks this afternoon and begins to relax toward evening as a series of weak cold frontal boundaries nudges in from the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible — about a 39 percent chance — mainly late afternoon into the evening. Both NWS offices note a few storms could reach strong-to-severe intensity, so keep an eye on the radar through the dinner hour.
Overnight lows hold stubbornly near 74°, offering little relief even after sunset. Streams remain low — Catharine Creek is running at just 6 cfs at Montour Falls — so any storm runoff today will be absorbed quickly.
Looking ahead: Saturday, Independence Day, brings a meaningful cool-down to 83° with a light drizzle chance, making outdoor fireworks plans workable but potentially damp — carry something waterproof to your cookout. Temperatures ease further into the upper 70s Sunday through Monday, with drizzle and moderate rain chances lingering through midweek before a gradual warm-up returns by next Thursday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.