Stepping outside here in Geneva this morning, the drizzle is already on your jacket — 60 degrees, humidity near 86 percent, and that damp, close smell that signals the real rain is on its way. This is shaping up to be the wettest day of the month so far.
The setup, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo, is a potent shortwave trough tracking across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into western New York. A warm front draped across the region is adding to the forcing, and the combination means widespread steady rain is expected to develop from southwest to northeast through the morning hours. By midmorning, most of the Finger Lakes should be seeing consistent, moderate rain. Rainfall could be heavy at times, particularly along the southern tier — the NY/PA border zone near Corning and Elmira has the best chance of isolated thunderstorms, where slightly more instability will be present.
Highs today top out in the mid-to-upper 60s — 66° for Geneva and Auburn, 68° for Ithaca and Watkins Glen. Rain chances stand at 98 percent. Winds remain light throughout, generally under 10 mph. Expect afternoon travel to be slow and wet.
Rain tapers tonight as the trough pushes east, and Tuesday brings a welcome return to overcast but dry conditions with highs near 74°. Wednesday looks partly cloudy and pleasant, reaching 76°. Another round of drizzle is possible Thursday into Friday as the next disturbance approaches, but amounts look light. Looking ahead to the weekend, highs climb into the upper 70s to near 81° by Sunday — a warmer, more summery pattern building into next week.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.