Light drizzle is already falling at the Weather Center here in Geneva this Monday morning — 60 degrees, humidity at 85 percent, and the kind of gray, close air that tells you the real rain hasn’t arrived yet. That changes quickly.
The NWS Buffalo office has flagged today’s setup as a soaking rain event. A potent shortwave trough tracking across the Ohio Valley is pushing a warm front northeast through the region, dragging a moisture-laden ribbon of rainfall with it. Showers already pressing into southwestern New York will continue to fill in from southwest to northeast through the morning hours. By mid-morning, steadier and at times moderate to heavy rain is expected regionwide, persisting well into the afternoon.
The southern valleys — Corning and the Chemung Valley near Elmira — sit closer to the NY/PA border where the NWS notes some instability could touch off a thunderstorm. Nothing severe is anticipated north of there, but rain will be widespread and persistent. Highs today reach the mid-to-upper 60s across the region; Ithaca and Watkins Glen may touch 68° if the cloud cover breaks briefly, but most of the day will feel raw and damp.
Rainfall totals of an inch or more are possible across the region. With the Seneca River already running at 1,120 cfs and stream levels elevated, ponding on low-lying roads and minor runoff issues are worth watching.
Tonight, the system exits and skies gradually clear. Tuesday through Wednesday bring a welcome recovery: overcast gives way to partly cloudy skies, with highs climbing to 74° Tuesday and 76° Wednesday. Attention then turns to IMSA weekend at The Glen — Friday and Saturday carry 55–65 percent drizzle chances, with modest temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s. Race day Sunday, June 28th for the Sahlen’s Six Hours, looks like the best of the stretch: partly cloudy skies and a high near 81°.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.