The drizzle settling over Geneva and Ithaca this morning is just the opening act — the main event arrives tonight when a strong surface low tracking out of the Midwest pushes a warm front through the region. This one is worth watching closely.
The morning hours stay quiet, if gray. Light to dense drizzle lingers across the northern lakes through mid-morning, with temperatures climbing slowly from the upper 50s into the low 60s. Skies partially clear by midday as a warm sector briefly settles in, pushing afternoon highs into the upper 70s — near 77° in Geneva, touching 81° in Ithaca and Watkins Glen. Southerly winds hold around 7–9 mph through the day.
The story changes after sunset. Showers organized along the warm front’s leading edge will push into the region from the west beginning around 9–11 PM tonight, potentially turning heavy at times overnight. NWS Buffalo highlights an abnormally strong surface low tracking toward the Ontario-Quebec border by Thursday morning, with the associated cold front sweeping through the Finger Lakes mid-morning to early afternoon Thursday. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected, along with gusty winds — forecasters noted an uptick in wind gusts tied to this system. Thursday’s high reaches 76° ahead of the front, with wind gusts that could top 20 mph.
By Friday the system clears northeast into Quebec, leaving mainly clear skies and cooler, more comfortable air — highs near 72° Friday, 71° Saturday. The weekend looks dry. A slight chance of rain returns next Monday and Tuesday, but nothing on the scale of tonight and Thursday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.