What strikes me most at 6 AM is the gap between how quietly today begins and how dramatically the week ends — clear skies, temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s across the region, and a system to the west that will make itself known by Thursday. For now, enjoy it.
Morning hours will be pleasant across the Finger Lakes, with sunshine and light southwesterly winds holding temperatures in the 50s through mid-morning. Humidity is already running a bit elevated — Geneva sits at 80% and Ithaca near 85% — but dew points stay manageable, so it won’t feel muggy early on.
Afternoon highs climb into the mid-70s regionwide, with Ithaca and Watkins Glen both targeting 77°. The NWS Buffalo office notes that an isolated shower or even a brief thunderstorm can’t be ruled out this afternoon, mainly well inland from the lakes during peak heating — but odds are low, under 20%, given limited moisture and weak forcing. Most spots stay dry.
The real story develops overnight into Wednesday, as high pressure weakens and shifts east and clouds begin thickening ahead of an approaching system. Wednesday itself brings increasing drizzle, with the main event arriving Wednesday evening through Thursday — an anomalously strong low pressure system that the Buffalo forecast office is flagging for its gusty winds (gusts potentially topping 21 mph Thursday) and widespread showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation probability hits 81% Thursday in Geneva.
The weekend brings some relief. Friday eases to partly cloudy skies around 70°, and Saturday and Sunday look mainly clear and comfortable, with highs in the low 70s.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.