Sunrise this morning finds the Finger Lakes sitting in a narrow window of relative calm — partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s, and a south wind already hinting at the warm, unstable air mass that’s going to fuel some serious weather later today. The Weather Center has had this afternoon circled since Thursday’s model runs, and the setup is now locked in.
The National Weather Service has placed the entire Finger Lakes under an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms — that’s a 3 out of 5 on the severity scale — for today. Showers and storms are expected to develop through the morning and intensify through the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and locally heavy rain the primary threats. At the same time, Air Quality Alerts remain in effect across nearly every county in the region. For Yates, Seneca, Schuyler, Tompkins, Steuben, and Chemung counties, the air quality alert runs through 2:00 PM today. Counties further north and west — including Ontario and Livingston — remain under their alert until midnight tonight. Canadian wildfire smoke is the culprit; NWS Buffalo notes improvement is expected across western New York late this morning, but smoke may linger into this evening across north-central areas.
Highs this afternoon will reach the low-to-mid 80s regionwide — 84° in Geneva, 85° near Ithaca and Canandaigua, and up to 86° around Watkins Glen — before storms knock temperatures back this evening. Clear out early tonight; overnight lows settle near 68° in Geneva.
Sunday brings a sharp cooldown behind the front — highs drop to around 72°, with a lingering drizzle chance. Monday looks pleasant at 80° with minimal rain chances. Rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s before a dry, comfortable pattern settles in by Thursday and Friday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.