The quiet Friday morning outside is a little deceptive — by this time tomorrow, a completely different atmosphere will be in place. Today, though, gives the region one last comfortable summer day before things get complicated.
Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy across the Finger Lakes this morning, with temperatures already in the upper 60s to low 70s. It’s a gentle start — light winds, humidity not yet oppressive, and no rain in the picture. Highs this afternoon will top out near 81° in Geneva and Canandaigua, with the warmer southern tier towns — Watkins Glen, Corning, and Elmira — reaching the mid-80s. Afternoon clouds may build a bit but shower chances remain at just 3 percent. Tonight stays dry with lows settling near 61°.
One caveat to that pleasant picture: Air Quality Alerts remain in effect through 8:00 PM tonight for portions of the region, including Ontario and Livingston counties, as Canadian wildfire smoke continues to filter in from the north. The NWS Buffalo office notes upper-level flow is expected to back during the day, which may push some of the smoke aloft rather than keeping it at the surface — so conditions should improve gradually through the afternoon.
The real story arrives Saturday. A deepening surface low tracking across the Great Lakes will drag a potent system into the Finger Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. NWS Buffalo has highlighted a Slight Risk — level 2 of 5 — of severe thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall also possible. Saturday’s high reaches 84°, but the thunderstorm chance is 91 percent. Sunday turns cooler and unsettled with drizzle and a high near 73°, followed by a brief drying-out Monday before another round of showers returns Tuesday.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.